I question if shippers really have ” long memories”?  Like wall street analysts, most shippers manage and plan to the short term albeit many times due to cost cutting pressure from the CFO and CEO. Will there be an avalanche of RFP’s in November, December, and first quarter of 2016 as shippers attempt to time the market? Will shippers downsize or eliminate dedicated fleets which provided much needed capacity in 2013 and 2014 and go back to more transactional  procurement? Will companies continue down the path to become a preferred shipper or shipper of choice by eliminating inefficiency at their loading docks and being more “driver friendly” at their facilities?   Will SRM, supplier relationship management still be a strategy with a shipper’s strategic or core carriers?

I do hope shippers take the long term view with their carrier procurement strategies.

Joe Lombardo, NGNF  (nice guy no freight)

Go long’ with shippers — recession likely before 2020

-Speaking as part of the Truckstop.com Connected user conference Tuesday, Nov. 10, transportation analyst Noel Perry recommended carriers “go long” with their contracts with shippers, as another economic recession is already overdue.

Perry, a forecaster for FTR, said the probability of the U.S. economy making it to 2020 without another downturn is “near zero.”

““The longest recovery we’ve had since 1945 last nine years,” he said. We’re beginning year seven of the current recovery, though it’s been marked by fairly tepid growth by and large. “If we get to year 2020 we have to have an unprecedented historical event – a recovery lasted 10 years.”

The recovery’s been good to trucking, but cycle may play out soon, says FTR’s PerryTruck freight growth in recent years has outpaced the total economy’s growth by two to one on a percentage basis, but the realities of a …

Now is not the time to put large capital expenditures into the business “unless you can get a return in two years,” Perry said. “Keep your cash flow solid – go long on relationships with your customers.” When the recession hits, you’ll be the “guy to get the freight, not your competitor.”

Gail Rutkowski, who represents a variety of shippers as executive director of the NASSTRAC organization, echoed that sentiment. “Shippers have long memories,” she said. “They remember who helped them out, and who didn’t. All the technology in the world never places that relationship – and it works both ways. You’ll expect the same kind of respect and attention from the shipper as they would from you.”

Perry’s gut feeling on the probability of recession, based on indicators he’s seeing in economic statistics, he put at 15-20 percent for year 2016. “By 2017, 60 percent. By ’18 – 80-90 percent. You should begin to think about it. Once we get into ’17 and ’18 it becomes a realistic issue.”

See more at: http://www.ccjdigital.com/go-long-with-shippers-recession-likely-before-2020/?utm_source=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_content=11-12-2015&utm_campaign=Commercial%20Carrier%20Journal&ust_id=68747efd8df8e80cb16d85a2d6472880#sthash.tJsmJrsm.dpuf


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